what is a dirty brexit?

Saturday, October 22nd, 2016

last week there were 3 noteworthy articles about brexit. one appeared on the financial times’s website. and it gave an estimate of how many billions of euros the UK would owe the EU at the end of the brexit process. the second and third noteworthy articles appeared on the politico.eu website. one mentioned that michel barnier, apparently the lead negotiator for brexit, wants to conduct the negotiations between the EU and the UK in french. the final article is about a dirty brexit. in this article entitled EU set for dirty brexit michel barnier lays out the 4 main points he will focus on regarding brexit. these points, along with francois hollande’s speech last week about how the UK cannot have the benefits of the EU without the responsibilities, is a sure sign that nobody in the EU cares about the UK’s financial passport, for instance. or what sort of deal they will get on trade with the union. the UK can always go through the WTO, for example. although that is not explicitly said.

you can find the 4 points here. what we’d like to focus on on this blog are just 2. the status and rights of EU nationals in the UK and conversely, the status of EU nationals in the EU and what’s to become of northern ireland and gilbraltar.

we are pretty sure that everyone will be grandfather claused in from the 23 june 2016 referrendum date. meaning, all EU-nationals who were residents of the UK upto the brexit vote will be allowed to stay and given special status in the UK. but maybe there will be an asterisk somewhere that lays the burden of proof on the longterm resident to prove why he or she can’t just pack his or her stuff and get the hell out.

we also think that UK nationals will be grandfather claused into the countries where they are staying. that they will be provided with a special status that falls short of citizenship but that they will have the opportunity to apply for citizenship. whether or not the offer of citizenship will be on the table in the UK remains to be seen. but we doubt it given that british nationalists voted for brexit to kick out all the foreigners not to make them citizens. so this will be a slippery slope.

we think the UK will keep northern ireland when it exits the EU. we are betting that ireland won’t do a landgrab over northern ireland as russia has done with the crimea in the ukraine.  we think that gilbraltar will leave with the UK too. although we know that wikipedia is highly unreliable and has a northern hemisphere male bias, this page might be a good starting point when researching information on the EU member states with territories that have a special situations with the european union.

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