Archive for the ‘emmanuel macron’ Tag

marcon inauguration live

Sunday, May 14th, 2017

emmanuel macron becomes france’s president.  live on France 24 live in english:

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blogging the french election 2

Sunday, May 7th, 2017

at 5pm france’s minister of the interior announced that turnout was at 65.30%. in 2012 it was 71.96%. the polls close at 7pm and 8pm (in some areas) CET time or (GMT + 1). according to reuters an unofficial poll by a belgian organization predicts emmanuel macron will win the presidency with 61% – 64% of the vote. you can watch the first round of results live at 19.05 (7:05pm) france time
in english or french on france 24:

blogging the french election

Sunday, May 7th, 2017

according to france 24 turnout at noon was 28.23%, only 2 percentage points behind 2012. in 2012 80% of the electorate voted in the second round of the french presidential election.

macron – le pen debate english version

Thursday, May 4th, 2017

France 24 has posted the english version of yesterdays’ debate all 2 hours and 33 minutes of it. as an aside, we would really like to know why a man does marine le pen’s voice.

drudge report gets it wrong about macron’s poll numbers

Monday, May 1st, 2017

actually, emmanuel macron, france’s centrist presidential candidate, is not sliding in the polls. “macron slides in polls” currently appears on the homepage of drudgereport. but macron is actually up from last week from 60% to 61% after falling to 59% on thrusday. while le pen who has fallen 7 points from 40% to 33% according to the UK Express. is the headline purposefully misleading or did drudge just read the first few lines of the article?

marine accused of 5M EUR fraud by EU

Thursday, April 27th, 2017

the european commission has accused presidential candidate of putting her bodyguard and chief of staff on the payroll for he mep gig in parliament. the initial 300k-ish calculation now looks more like 5M-ish.

populism vs. marine le pen

Saturday, April 22nd, 2017

the allure of populist rhetoric is that populists offer simple solutions to complex problems. it is this type of rhetoric that seperated donald trump from the pack of 16 presidential candidates during the marathon debates that lead up to the US GOP presidential primaries in 2015 and 2016.

populism works well when ideas are asserted with a bit of a wink and a double meaning. then one’s audience member can walk away feeling as if he (and it’s usually a he) knows what the populist really meant. with marine le pen, these sort of double entendres are absent.

le pen and the far right national front party’s support for a frexit is based on le pen’s assertion that “they” (whomever they are) said that brexit would destroy the EU and the UK economy. there are those in the UK that asserted that this could happen and given that the pound is trading at about 1 pound to 1.28 USD and had been hovering around 1 pound to 1.80 USD since probably the late 1990s, it’s  great for exports but not for imports and brits who like to travel. and there has been a tick up in inflation in the UK. and given that the UK is mostly a service-oriented industry and has a slim manufacturing base, it’s not totally clear who a weak pound is really helping in great britain. there’s the famous story of david cameron traveling to china and trying to figure out what the UK actually made that china needed. because china doesn’t really need the UK’s financial services.

getting back to marine le pen. there is no parallel argument between frexit (france leaving the EU) and brexit (the UK leaving the EU) . for one thing, france was a founding member of the EU in 1957, having collaborated (dare we say collaborated) with the germans, luxembourgians, dutch, italians and the belgians to create what was initially called a lot of things, including the common market (prior to being called the european union). france also shares the same currency, the euro, with 19 out of the current 28 EU members, while countries such as the UK, denmark and sweden, do not. the UK joined the EU in the early 1970s prior to margaret thatcher becoming prime minister.

therefore an unraveling of france from the EU would not only be messy, it would throw the entire world into chaos, if not a depression. although joseph stiglitz wrote a nice little screed in 2016 about how to de-couple the euro. he even admited that how messy it might be is a big unknown. but his argument is that it would be better to do this sooner than later otherwise the eurozone countries have doomed themselves to endless decades of slow growth.

but given that emmanuel macron, the centrist candidate from the party en marche! (who, unlike jeb bush is making successful use of an exclamation point) is polling at 25% (up from 22.5% from the beginning of the week) and from the last poll numbers we’ve seen marine le pen is at 21%. we think that jean-luc mélenchon(the eurosceptic and far left candidate) will land in second place. mélenchon has managed to peel some of the national front’s voters away by appealing to youth and workers who support le pen with nonsense like free stuff and wealth redistribution. but we we predict that emmanuel macron and mélenchon will secure a second place slot in the run off. which will create a type of chaos for the CAC, french bonds and the world for the following 2 weeks, if not the next 5 years.

the french presidential election takes place in 2 rounds. in round 1 the french people send the political class and the elites a message. which is why when cnn and hala gorani run around paris trying to determine why there are so many undecided voters, it is because the journalists at cnn (fake news?) don’t understand france’s political system. it’s tough to drop a non-french speaker in the middle of france and sort out its political culture in a weekend. but in the end, the reason why almost 33% of french voters are undecided is because they have not determined which message they would like to send to the political elites. it could be that le pen’s number is too small and that these 33% could decide to thrown their votes behind le pen. that would really be the only way that le pen, like trump, could become the accidential french president.

macron and trump

Tuesday, March 21st, 2017

france’s emmanuel macron has more in common with donald trump than marine le pen. neither emmanuel macron nor donald trump had ever run for a political office before they decided to run for president. donald trump jr described the trump orange hurricane as a “movement” and last night in france’s first presidential debate, macron described his fake party en marche party as a movement as well. we are not against macron. we are quite intrigued to have found a representative of the populist middle. unlike donald trump, if macron wins the presidential election, it will have been his good looks and youthful optimism that propelled him into office.

france presidential debates full video

Tuesday, March 21st, 2017

the france presidential debate ran for over 3 hours. france 24 broadcast it live in english. hopefully france 24 will post it on their website. for now you can watch the french version.

macron kisses the ring

Friday, March 17th, 2017

emmanuel macron, france’s leader of the en marche! party and former finance minister in the francois hollande governnent was in germany yesterday meeting with chancellor angela merkel. the center of influence in the EU has traditionally been the german-french axis. march 25th marks the 60th anniversary of the treaty of rome and the founding of a union that held a number of names until it was renamed the european union. the 6 founding members, which we must point out did not include the united kingdom, have in the end consistently managed to find diplomatic solutions to problems that 100 years ago would have led to war and the destruction of the benelux countries and a march towards russia.

this week, holland, a founding member withstood its own test. next month and in may, so will france. will the babyfaced macron–the former banker, leading a so-called movement which is most likely an idea crafted by francois hollande and his ex-socialist minister (macron) prevail?

here is one conspiracy theory: with an approval rating of 4% hollande realized he stood no chance in getting re-elected. we suspect macron is being used as a proxy for the socialist party. but on the other hand, it never made sense that a former banker was essentially the member of a 21st century communist party.