emmanuel macron becomes france’s president. live on France 24 live in english:
emmanuel macron becomes france’s president. live on France 24 live in english:
macron at 39 years old is the youngest head of state of france since napoleon bonaparte in 1848.
at 5pm france’s minister of the interior announced that turnout was at 65.30%. in 2012 it was 71.96%. the polls close at 7pm and 8pm (in some areas) CET time or (GMT + 1). according to reuters an unofficial poll by a belgian organization predicts emmanuel macron will win the presidency with 61% – 64% of the vote. you can watch the first round of results live at 19.05 (7:05pm) france time
in english or french on france 24:
according to france 24 turnout at noon was 28.23%, only 2 percentage points behind 2012. in 2012 80% of the electorate voted in the second round of the french presidential election.
this is neither fake news nor old news. according to the drudgereport and reuters, etc, french presidential candidate emmanuel macron and his political campaign team have been hacked. when you go to websites such as zerohedge or hell just google macron postbin, you see that these files are (or probably as of now the operative word is ‘were’) hosted on archives.org. we thought real hackers uploaded their wares to wikileaks not postbin and certainly don’t use archives.org to host the stuff.
so what’s going on here? and can this sway the french presidential elections? given that the announcement came just hours prior to the news blackout in france (see french laws about political elections) the macron campaign had enough time to announce the hack and repudiate the hack, saying that fake emails and documents were mixed with real ones.
one could accept that there was a hack. one could also wonder whether or not marine le pen has been outplayed by macron. as macron was outplayed by le pen when she spontaneously showed up to his meeting at a factory last week. by releasing the documents prior to midnight on friday, it was assured that the last few hours of the news cycle in france would be owned by the macron campaign. and that international media yahoos like cnn would spend the next 48 hours obsessively discussing the nano details about the so-called hack. despite the european commissioner president jean-claude juncker’s claim that english is a dying language (albeit not like latin), one would assume that macron’s globalist followers and jean-luc mélenchon’s youthful followers might be absorbed with dare we say reading international news and searching bit torrent for macron emails for at least the next 24 hours.
someone we know who knows someone who knows someone who went to archive.org and looked at some of the stuff. thinks that there’s nothing damining in the mix and it’s all rubbish.
but whatever is in the so-called hacked documents, this won’t help le pen close a 24 point gap. might the cyber event supress voter turnout? only for the dumb people. who decides 48 hours before a vote between le pen, macron, or staying home? arguably no french person who has a bank account with more than 500 EUR in it should ever vote for marine le pen. whether one is left-right-or a centrist, just even the threat of france exiting the euro currency could be the beginning of the end of the western world.
the allure of populist rhetoric is that populists offer simple solutions to complex problems. it is this type of rhetoric that seperated donald trump from the pack of 16 presidential candidates during the marathon debates that lead up to the US GOP presidential primaries in 2015 and 2016.
populism works well when ideas are asserted with a bit of a wink and a double meaning. then one’s audience member can walk away feeling as if he (and it’s usually a he) knows what the populist really meant. with marine le pen, these sort of double entendres are absent.
le pen and the far right national front party’s support for a frexit is based on le pen’s assertion that “they” (whomever they are) said that brexit would destroy the EU and the UK economy. there are those in the UK that asserted that this could happen and given that the pound is trading at about 1 pound to 1.28 USD and had been hovering around 1 pound to 1.80 USD since probably the late 1990s, it’s great for exports but not for imports and brits who like to travel. and there has been a tick up in inflation in the UK. and given that the UK is mostly a service-oriented industry and has a slim manufacturing base, it’s not totally clear who a weak pound is really helping in great britain. there’s the famous story of david cameron traveling to china and trying to figure out what the UK actually made that china needed. because china doesn’t really need the UK’s financial services.
getting back to marine le pen. there is no parallel argument between frexit (france leaving the EU) and brexit (the UK leaving the EU) . for one thing, france was a founding member of the EU in 1957, having collaborated (dare we say collaborated) with the germans, luxembourgians, dutch, italians and the belgians to create what was initially called a lot of things, including the common market (prior to being called the european union). france also shares the same currency, the euro, with 19 out of the current 28 EU members, while countries such as the UK, denmark and sweden, do not. the UK joined the EU in the early 1970s prior to margaret thatcher becoming prime minister.
therefore an unraveling of france from the EU would not only be messy, it would throw the entire world into chaos, if not a depression. although joseph stiglitz wrote a nice little screed in 2016 about how to de-couple the euro. he even admited that how messy it might be is a big unknown. but his argument is that it would be better to do this sooner than later otherwise the eurozone countries have doomed themselves to endless decades of slow growth.
but given that emmanuel macron, the centrist candidate from the party en marche! (who, unlike jeb bush is making successful use of an exclamation point) is polling at 25% (up from 22.5% from the beginning of the week) and from the last poll numbers we’ve seen marine le pen is at 21%. we think that jean-luc mélenchon(the eurosceptic and far left candidate) will land in second place. mélenchon has managed to peel some of the national front’s voters away by appealing to youth and workers who support le pen with nonsense like free stuff and wealth redistribution. but we we predict that emmanuel macron and mélenchon will secure a second place slot in the run off. which will create a type of chaos for the CAC, french bonds and the world for the following 2 weeks, if not the next 5 years.
the french presidential election takes place in 2 rounds. in round 1 the french people send the political class and the elites a message. which is why when cnn and hala gorani run around paris trying to determine why there are so many undecided voters, it is because the journalists at cnn (fake news?) don’t understand france’s political system. it’s tough to drop a non-french speaker in the middle of france and sort out its political culture in a weekend. but in the end, the reason why almost 33% of french voters are undecided is because they have not determined which message they would like to send to the political elites. it could be that le pen’s number is too small and that these 33% could decide to thrown their votes behind le pen. that would really be the only way that le pen, like trump, could become the accidential french president.
france’s emmanuel macron has more in common with donald trump than marine le pen. neither emmanuel macron nor donald trump had ever run for a political office before they decided to run for president. donald trump jr described the trump orange hurricane as a “movement” and last night in france’s first presidential debate, macron described his fake party en marche party as a movement as well. we are not against macron. we are quite intrigued to have found a representative of the populist middle. unlike donald trump, if macron wins the presidential election, it will have been his good looks and youthful optimism that propelled him into office.